Statistical Modelling III

Content for Wednesday, November 8, 2023

In our last class on multivariate analysis, we’ll take on one of the more underappreciated elements of modeling: understanding if your model is good enough for prediction or inference. We’ll spend a bit of time differentiating the uses of models as a means of understanding what it means to be a “good” model.

Resources

Objectives

By the end of today you should be able to:

  • Articulate three different reasons for modeling and how they link to assessments of fit

  • Describe and implement several test statistics for assessing model fit

  • Describe and implement several assessments of classification

  • Describe and implement resampling techniques to estimate predictive performance

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Panopto Video

References

Araújo, M. B., R. P. Anderson, A. M. Barbosa, C. M. Beale, C. F. Dormann, R. Early, R. A. Garcia, A. Guisan, L. Maiorano, B. Naimi, R. B. O’Hara, N. E. Zimmermann, and C. Rahbek. 2019. Standards for distribution models in biodiversity assessments. Science Advances 5:eaat4858.
Mac Nally, R., R. P. Duncan, J. R. Thomson, and J. D. L. Yen. 2018. Model selection using information criteria, but is the “best” model any good? J. Appl. Ecol. 55:1441–1444.
Tredennick, A. T., G. Hooker, S. P. Ellner, and P. B. Adler. 2021. A practical guide to selecting models for exploration, inference, and prediction in ecology. Ecology 102:e03336.